On the 1996 Elections
by
Matt Giwer (c) 1995 <10/31>

      Being only a few months away from the primaries, the talking heads are doing what they do best. Copy each other. Everyone sick of hearing Colin Powell speculation, raise your hand.
      For the presidential race, the Democrats have it easy. Clinton has the position and the money and no challengers. And because of the first two no challenger has a chance.
      The picture is much different for the congressional races. They have an uphill fight simply to hold even with the seats in this Congress. And it is a fight they can not win.
      For the Republicans the goal is simple. They have a shot at a 2/3rds majority in both the House and the Senate and are likely to get it in the Senate. And they are likely to get it with regular party members without the need of sympathetic Democrats.
      This will depend upon the follow-on to the Contract with America and it would not hurt if the Senate would join in. It is in the Presidential race where the Republicans have a serious problem. More candidates than they need.
      Not only more candidates but front runners look like they have come directly from a mortician's convention. Certainly they are more qualified than Clinton was when he was elected, more qualified than he is now for that matter. They are simply not exciting. They should have learned from Bush's loss that campaigning on doing the job in the Constitution is dumb.
      Pat Buchanan is back again and showing signs of becoming a latter day Harold Stassen. His message has yet to get stale so he still draws crowds.
      At this time the fabled Colin Powell has not declared. Fabled perhaps best describes him. The Persian Gulf War happened on his watch. That is supposed to be impressive. It isn't as though he did anything anyone else in the position could not have done.
      (Note here that he was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. That he was the Chairman depended upon several factors. The Chairman position rotates through the services. It happened to be the Army's turn. The two star rank is the highest one can go in the military on military merit alone. Three and four stars are political appointments. In other words, had he been less politically oriented and it had been the Navy's turn, it would be "Colin who?")
      Beyond the two parties, there is H. Ross Perot, the man who has confused management style with presidential style. He is not so much running for president as he is making a move to become Chairman of the Board.
      And of course there will always be the Libertarian Party, the Natural Law Party and a host of smaller ones. Which brings us back to the talking heads and the rest of the media. If they don't cover the candidates, if they don't talk about them, they will never show up in the polls.
      Colin Powell is an excellent example of this phenomenon this year as was Perot in 1992. In the normal course of events a man considering a run first raises money, sets up an exploratory committee, and does a lot of polling of the voters to see how his message plays.
      Colin Powell had not needed to spend dollar one to get not only all of the above but media and political leader reaction to his candidacy. Without spending a penny he has gotten some of the best political advise in the country, commentary upon his positions, just about everything he needs.
      And this happened because the media flocked to covering him. In covering him they needed to compete with each other for new material. If there is nothing new, they conduct a poll to make some news.
      It was the same with Perot. He had nothing without the media coverage. Plenty of third party candidates have bought air time over the years but they gotten no where. Malcolm Forbes is such a candidate this election. A sordid love affair could only help him at this point.
      The good news is that in giving exposure to candidates, it makes no difference if that coverage is favorable or unfavorable. They do not determine the outcome of an election. Of course people like Larry King are trying to do get in that position but with no success.
      It is lining up as an excellent media replacement for the OJ trial particularly if they can do enough favorable legwork for Powell to get him to run. For what my opinion is worth, I think he is holding out the potential candidacy to sell books. Look for him to run in 2000 after he has established a public image outside of the military.
      And there it was, Powell speculation. And I am not even a talking head. It is irresistible.