There is a single cause of the
present Bosnian problem and no, one does not have to make an
excursion into the far past to find it. We need look no further
back than 1992. That was the year of the break-up of Yugoslavia.
That in itself is not why
it is a problem for Europe. The reason it is a problem is that
Europe and the US moved to quickly to diplomatically recognize
those new countries. Thus what would have been a civil war
without international implications became a war between nations.
It is a European crisis created by the diplomats and no one else.
This started as a war
between Serbia and Bosnia. Serbia armed its surrogate rebel
faction while the nations of the world cut off arms to Bosnia,
thus creating the conditions for the atrocities we see in the
news. Were this a civil war we would be as interested as
watching what the Hutu and and the Tutsi tribes did (and are
probably still doing) to each other.
As there are two nations
at each other's throats it is natural to talk about other nations
becoming involved or it spreading to other nations. Were it a
civil war that would not be a natural way to talk.
Lately the talk has
shifted to "warring factions in Bosnia" as though Serbia was not
a part of this. That is an amusing fiction that only a hamstrung
government can make. It was hardly a year ago the president of
Serbia was designated a war criminal and now he has dared anyone
to arrest him when he goes to Paris for the treaty signing.
It looks like Milosevic
was an innocent bystander all these years.
So when we get right down
to it there is a diplomatic solution to military intervention in
Bosnia. That is simply to admit a mistake and withdraw
diplomatic recognition of the existence of the warring countries.
Then we have a civil war and not an international conflict.
There is an aspect to our
presence in Bosnia that is so far not open to public discussion.
That is the insistence of the factions and nations involved upon
the US being there in force. Some may believe this is because the
sides belief the US is the only country that can be trusted to be
fair and honest.
So also may believe in
the tooth fairy. Rest assured, do not think to question, the
parties involved believe they can gain the greatest advantage for
their side if the US is there. They are planning to use the US
for their own strategic purposes whatever those might be.
Perhaps it will be
psychological by killing the other side to show even the US can
not protect them. Perhaps they feel (know) the internal
political reaction of the US public to the death of children and
they plan to engineer some deaths. No one knows what is going
through their heads but rest assured they are planning to use the
US to their own ends.
And that means the US
needs to take control of the situation and not be reactive.
Control means complete control and from the beginning forcing the
sides to do as ordered including contrived orders simply to keep
them in a constant state of compliance. You can be assured the US
will do no such thing.
Another thing you can be
assured of, regardless of the rules of engagement, the response
to an attack by Serbian supported forces will not be a few dozen
cruise missiles headed for the Presidential Palace in Serbia.
There was a similar limitation some years ago in Vietnam.
And there is another matter.
Part of the NATO mission is to arm and train the losing side. I
can see the winning side thinking that is a truly humanitarian
objective.
I can also see the newly
armed losers taking the initiative in getting a little early
field experience. After all, there are three years worth of
scores to settle. For every tear jerked by the sight of a maimed
child on TV there is a surviving family uninterested in making
nice with the people who did it.
Revenge may not be a nice
motive, it may be unchristian, it may be politically incorrect.
In that country getting even is a moral imperative. And if they
take a dislike to something our troops do, they are not exempt
from divine retribution via an AK-47.
Now maybe there is some hidden
master plan behind this apparent confusion and disorder. If so
the administration is doing a great job of keeping it secret.
But then the real reason our troops are being sent if really no
secret, it is because Bill Clinton said two years ago they would
be sent.
Perhaps that leaves me
terminally confused.