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Regarding the Arab Spring three rules apply. The first two are of equal
value and must be satisfied.
- The revolution must have a better than even chance of succeeding.
- The revolution must be significantly better than what it replaces.
Without the first rule every wannabe would be starting and losing a revolt.
This would result in the unnecessary deaths of untold numbers to no benefit.
It also has to be a clear shot at winning not a marginal gamble.
The second rule means there is no point in replacing one dictatorship with
another dictatorship.
The third rule is of variable merit.
The revolutionaries must be appreciative of the support.
The variable here determines the degree of support. Generally a revolt
capable of succeeding will succeed. The variable is how long it takes and
how many lives are lost. It is not possible to change losers into winners.
Foreign support can only shorten the time to victory. Clearly gratitude
should be in terms of how much shorter meaning how many fewer die.
For these reasons no matter how unpleasant a government it is the
only government and has to be treated as such. If the people do not think it
important enough to overthrow why should other countries?
The downside of being overtly against a government is the people will rally
behind that government no matter how much detested. It is not logical but it
is the way people respond.
Essentially all of our history beyond names, dates and places is
Norse Saga in prose form.
-- The Iron Webmaster, 1347
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