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Israel blusters about attacking Iran's nuclear program. Just a few quick
thoughts on the matter.
This will not be a mere attack. It will be the opening volley of a war which
will continue as long as Iran wants it to continue. Simply insisting that
any cease fire be dependent upon zero belligerant statements in any
form by any Israeli politician or government ends the cease fire is
sufficient. Iran can then release daily updates of Israeli violations to
justify any attack at any time.
It is not reasonable to expect any country to get involved on the side of
Israel in any fighting. If a country does then Russia and perhaps China will
certainly threaten to side with Iran stalemating the move. Even the traitors
in the US Congress are unlikely to get involved beyond sham press releases.
After attack do nothing but pick up the pieces in front of foreign media who
are invited in without background checks. There is nothing to do but cover
the aftermath. The bleeding heart media coverage of wailing mothers and the
mangled bodies of children will do more than all the propaganda Iran can
generate.
Coverage will shift to public demands for revenge. They will occur without
government encouragement so stay away from them. This will prove a revenge
attack is public will not government intent. The democratic government can
be helpless in front of the will of the people.
A few attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah will be unavoidable. Iran responds with
a call for patience implying the order to attack will come soon. This will
exhaust the IDF standing at the ready prepared to respond while next to
nothing happens. The occasional attacks will send Israelis by the millions
to shelters irregularly.
The US will be calling for peace and cease fire but it will not be able to
focus on Iran.
After three or four days, with careful planning based upon the Israeli
attack, the first counterattack is launched. This is of short duration but
enough to send the entire country to the bomb shelters.
Iran announces its primary targets as economic and military. The inaccuracy
of missiles will take care of the rest. The named targets are the Haifa oil
depot and Israel's "pentagon." That its pentagon is in Tel Aviv is of course
unfortunate and unavoidable. Simply announcing Haifa as a target raises the
cost of oil as any ship delivering oil will need combat zone insurance.
Simply announcing all ports are targets raises the price of all imports and
exports for the same reason. Actually hitting something is icing on the
cake.
Subsequent attacks come at irregular intervals preferring the early hours of
business days to disrupt the rest of the day making it unproductive. One
attack a week reduces the economic output on the order of 20%.
Hezbollah and Hamas participate in these attacks. The Israeli response will
have no armies to fight. Its response will be excessive and clumsy enough to
cause Syria to participate. The ultimate result will be a complete
mobilization of the IDF reducing the economic output by another 20% and
increasing the cost of the operation as mobilized military no longer have
taxable incomes but are being paid by the government.
Iran does NOT attack any US base or asset. Iran does not attack any oil
asset in the middle east i.e. does nothing to be blamed for the increase in
oil prices.
The alternative of an all out attack brings the interests of the entire
world to bear upon Iran whereas a measured response keeps all the attention
on Israel. As opposed to weeping women reports from Israel will be censored
to prevent such "demoralizing" images from being broadcast.
The irregular attacks continue until Israel accepts humiliating terms for a
cease fire. The rate of attack depends the production rate of long range
missiles.
Israel's ability for additional attacks on Iran will be limited. It will be
losing planes with each attack. Consider the 1992 war on Iraq, a country one
third the population of Iran, required 2000 sorties per day for 44 days just
to soften it up enough for the main attack.
A proper attack requires the first wave to eliminate defenses and a second
wave following up before repairs are possible. Successive attacks must keep
defenses down while inflicting additional damage. Israel does not have
enough planes for a successful first wave much less a single immediate
follow on attack.
Iran has too many targets, all of them redundant, and most far below ground.
Bunker buster bombs are to heavy to be delivered to Iran. Even if they could
be their effectiveness is questionable. Once a tunnel enters a mountain no
one knows how deep it goes nor which way it turns. A bunker buster must hit
directly above to have a hope of being effective.
Given the distance involved in terms of flight hours and the combat
maneuvers requires the maintenance hours per plane increase far in excess of
attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. Israel would be fortunate to have 20% of its
planes available for attacks at any one time whereas one third is the ideal.
That is not enough for a successive attacks on Iran.
All of them would be needed to have a hope of a serious first attack. That
would have all of them down for repair for days afterward leaving the
country open to attack from any other country. It would be an ideal time for
the Egyptian air force to get some payback for the 1967 Israeli attack.
Aircraft losses will be unavoidable. Captured pilots will be unavoidable.
Speedy trial and execution by Iran is reasonable because of the loss of
civilian lives. Holding them as bargaining chips may be better after the
first couple are hanged for war crimes. Sentenced to death and execution put
off for the duration of negotiations with Israel. It is a better negotiating
position than existed with other prisoners.
When Israel bombed whatever it was in Syria a few years ago (Israel claims
it was a nuclear reactor) its planes required wing tanks for the fuel needed
to go the distance with the required bomb load for that one open and
undefended target. Targets in Iran are up to three times farther away. At
some point the bomb load becomes negligible and the attack not worth the
exercise.
Iran has mountain ranges. The trick of flying below the radar is not
possible when you have to fly over mountains. Sticking to flat land to avoid
mountains makes the flight path too long to return to Israel.
All attacks have to be over unfriendly territory without permission making
them liable to attack all along the way. Avoiding being fired at along the
way increases flight time and fuel requirements limiting bomb load.
The closer the margin of fuel for a successful return the less maneuvering
is possible. Maneuvering is to get to the target and avoid hostile fire in
Iran and is thus unavoidable.
The return path is also over hostile countries. Returning planes will also
be attacked. Bail out means captured pilots which Iran will demand be
extradited to stand charges for war crimes. Military overflights of a
neutral country are also war crimes. Only following orders is not a valid
defense. The pilots are individually and personally responsible for their
crimes by the Nuremberg standards.
The current best case estimate for the public (propaganda) is that an attack
would be to set back Iran only a year and a half which is hardly worth the
effort. A realistic estimate is better measured in weeks or even days
because of redundant facilities. Such an attack would result in a balls out
effort to produce bombs even if there is no intention to do so now.
Taking out three coastal cities ends Israel. Iran need not follow up the
attack. Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt can squabble over who gets how much
of ex-Israel.
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